Tuesday morning, 6:15 AM. An electrician from Steinhagen drives to his first job site in Bielefeld. He filled up last night – €107 for 50 liters of diesel. On the way back, he hears on the radio that the Federal Government has adopted a “fuel measures package”. Sounds like help. At the pump, he notices none of it. Quite the opposite.
What he does notice: Since April 1, the price stays put in the morning. No more five changes before breakfast. What he also notices: The price that stays put in the morning is higher than last week.
1 | What the new rule can do – and what it cannot
Since April 1, 2026, petrol stations may increase their prices for E5, E10 and diesel only once per day – at 12 noon. Price reductions remain permitted at any time. Violations are punishable by fines of up to €100,000. The model comes from Austria, where a similar system has been in place for more than 15 years. The regulation is limited to one year and will be evaluated afterwards.
The practical effect: Filling up before 12 noon tends to be cheaper. This is a genuine benefit for commuters, tradespeople and care services who have to plan their day around the pump. Previously, prices changed up to 22 times a day on average. Price comparison apps became practically worthless as a result.
What the rule cannot do: lower the price. That is roughly the difference between a clean invoice and a lower invoice amount. Both are nice. Just not the same.
2 | The first day: up 7.6 cents at exactly 12
Could one have anticipated that the rule would create an incentive for higher midday adjustments? Yes. That is exactly what the first days after introduction show.
The facts: On April 1, at exactly 12 o’clock, E10 rose by 7.6 cents to €2.175. Diesel jumped by 7.5 cents to €2.376. On April 2, diesel reached a daily average of €2.346 – a new all-time high. The previous record from March 2022 was exceeded by 2.5 cents. The fact that crude oil became more expensive at the same time explains part of the increase – but not all of it.
The mechanism is no economic miracle, but obvious: If you are only allowed to increase once a day, you price the risk of the entire day into that one moment. Instead of five small steps up and three down, there is now one big jump at 12 o’clock – and then reductions that often remain above the morning’s starting level. The ADAC speaks of a “risk surcharge”.
If you limit the frequency of price increases but not their amount, the remaining increases become larger. That is like telling a boxer: You may only strike once per round. The punch will simply be harder.
The Austrian model also shows that state intervention at the pump does not automatically guarantee relief. There, in 2026 the brake was even combined with tax cuts and margin caps. Nevertheless, initial evaluations report only inconsistent or limited price declines. The market rarely follows political wish lists.
3 | €2.18 per liter – and who benefits
If you currently pay €2.18 for one liter of E10, then the following is included:
- 65 cents as energy tax – a fixed amount, regardless of whether crude oil costs $50 or $150
- approx. 17 cents as a CO₂ levy – since January 2026 within the price corridor of €55 to €65 per tonne
- 35 cents as VAT – calculated on the total price, i.e., also on the other taxes. Tax on tax.
- 1 cent for the petroleum stockpiling levy
Total: around €1.18. In this sample calculation, that is just over 54% of the per-liter price. So, of every euro you spend at the pump, more than half goes to the state – before the station operator has even paid for electricity.
Revenues from emissions trading amounted to €21.4 billion in 2025 – a record. From 2028, the national price corridor will be abolished, and the CO₂ price will be formed freely on the European market. Various forecasts assume €120 to €150 per tonne for 2030 – however, that is a scenario, not a certainty. Only the direction is certain: upwards.
In the price structure, the state is a significant player. The new measures package regulates the price components that are not set by the state – and avoids the debate about its own levers.
4 | Why policymakers do not reduce their share – and why that is short-sighted
The obvious question that nobody in Berlin wants to answer: If fuel prices are too high, why does the state not reduce its own share?
VAT is percentage-based: The more expensive the fuel, the more the state collects. At €2.18 per liter, that is 35 cents VAT – at €1.50 it would be only 24 cents. That is not polemics; it is mathematics.
The standard political response: tax cuts would not reach consumers; the corporations would pocket the difference. The experience with the fuel rebate in 2022 is cited as evidence. The argument has a logical flaw: If the new antitrust oversight works, it can prevent exactly that. If it does not work, the question arises why it was introduced in the first place.
The real reason is uncomfortably simple: High energy prices are politically intended because they are part of the climate protection strategy. CO₂ is meant to become more expensive so that fossil fuels become unattractive. As a long-term concept, that is understandable. But in an acute crisis – Iran–Middle East conflict, sharply rising oil prices and diesel prices at record levels – a steering instrument quickly becomes a brake on growth.
Because the chain always works the same way: Higher fuel prices → higher transport costs → higher goods prices → less purchasing power → less consumption → fewer orders → less growth. Economic institutes forecast inflation of 2.8% for 2026 with only 0.6% growth. Higher energy prices will reduce Germany’s income in 2026 and 2027 by an estimated €50 billion.
Your baker drives 40 km to the bakery at 3 AM. His flour arrives by diesel truck. If both together pay €200 more per month for fuel, that ends up in the price of bread rolls. A care worker in East Westphalia drives 80 to 120 km a day – at the current diesel price, that is €400 to €500 in fuel costs per month, per vehicle.
Anyone who thinks fuel prices are a driver problem has either forgotten the division of labor in the economy or never taken it seriously.
5 | Antitrust law: sharp sword or blunt instrument?
The package also includes a tightening of antitrust law. When prices rise sharply, the burden of proof is reversed: the authority does not have to prove that prices are excessive – the oil companies must prove that they are not.
The approach is fundamentally correct. The practical question is simply: What happens if the corporations demonstrate that their purchase prices have in fact risen – which should not be particularly difficult given crisis-driven surges in crude oil prices? Antitrust law can control abuse of market power. It cannot cure the oil price. And it certainly cannot reduce the tax burden.
6 | What does this mean for you?
If you are an entrepreneur: Check whether your contracts contain price adjustment clauses for energy costs. If not: add them. Calculate transport costs with a buffer. The CO₂ price will continue to rise.
If you are an employee: Fill up before 12 noon. Use the increased commuting allowance (38 cents from the first kilometer). And factor fuel prices into your next salary negotiation.
If you are a landlord or tenant: The CO₂ price also affects heating oil and gas. The CO₂ Cost Sharing Act will become increasingly relevant as prices rise.
Key takeaway: The new fuel price rule does not make filling up cheaper – it makes it more predictable when it will get more expensive. As long as the state itself collects more than half of the per-liter price, any measures package against high fuel prices is, above all, one thing: a package against the other half.
→ Detailed analysis for download (PDF): Price breakdown, comparison with the Austrian model, tax options, and specific contractual recommendations for entrepreneurs.
Petra Nieweg is an attorney and graduate economist (Dipl.-Volkswirtin) in Steinhagen. She advises companies and private individuals at the intersection of law and economics.
Do you have questions about price adjustment clauses, the CO₂ Cost Sharing Act, or the economic consequences of rising energy costs? Write to me.
